Technical performance differences between winning, drawing, and losing teams at the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Keywords:
FIFA World Cup, match outcome, performance analysis, soccerAbstract
Aim: This study examined differences in technical performance variables among winning, drawing, and losing teams during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Methods: The study analysed all 104 matches played during the tournament. Eighteen technical performance variables were examined across six domains: offensive productivity, build-up/passing, defensive/pressing actions, set pieces, attack type, and discipline. Data were obtained from SportsBase. Statistical analyses were conducted using R software, with significance set at p < 0.05. Data distribution was assessed using normality tests. The Benjamini–Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) correction was applied for multiple comparisons across the technical variables. Results: Winning teams demonstrated significantly greater offensive productivity than drawing and losing teams, including goals scored (2.68 ± 1.33 vs. 0.88 ± 0.79 and 0.65 ± 0.76; p(FDR) < .001, ε² = .506), xG (2.00 ± 0.90 vs. 1.34 ± 0.87 and 0.95 ± 0.75; ε² = .281), shots on target percentage (ε² = .141), and chances successful percentage (ε² = .200). Winners also showed higher pass accuracy, key passes, and ball possession, with possession differing progressively across winning, drawing, and losing teams (ε² = .206). Progressive passes were higher in winning and drawing teams than in losing teams. PPDA, ball recoveries, corners, set-piece goals, positional attack shot percentage, and counterattack shot percentage also differed significantly by match outcome. In contrast, tackle success, interceptions, and fouls did not differ significantly. Winning teams recorded fewer yellow cards than drawing and losing teams. Conclusions: In the 2026 FIFA World Cup, stronger possession-based build-up, improved attacking organization, and increased attacking efficacy were more closely linked to match performance than variations in fundamental defensive play. These results emphasize the importance of developing multifaceted technical performance profiles when assessing elite international soccer players.
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